PITTSBURGH — Mike Tomlin wins a lot. He needs no endorsement from me on that front. Tomlin owns the second-highest winning percentage (.653) of any active coach with at least five years experience.
But it’s also true that in many years the Steelers sustain a horrifically inexplicable and damaging road loss (or tie).
That simply cannot happen this season. Not if they want that precious first-round bye. There is only one to be had, assuming the NFL’s COVID issues don’t wipe out the bye week.
This is a high-stakes arms race. The Kansas City Chiefs are the top competition for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and are capable of running the table and finishing 15-1. A reasonable forecast would put them at 14-2 or 13-3.
In the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens are still capable of hitting 12 or 13 wins. The divisional remains very much alive, considering the Ravens come here Nov. 26.
It’s that kind of year — the kind where one slip-up could prove fatal. The Steelers would be wise to take the path of the 2008 and 2010 outfits, which avoided such mishaps, and, in a related matter, wound up in the Super Bowl.
And when I say mishap, I’m not talking about losing to an average team or quarterback. I’m talking about losing to the 2-10 Oakland Raiders or the 1-8 New York Jets. I’m talking about losing to Ryan Mallett, Kellen Clemens, Mike Glennon (twice), Terrelle Pryor, Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden and late-stage Michael Vick.
That all happened.
Will it happen again?
Well, the only road games that would qualify as that disastrous are Dallas on Sunday, Jacksonville two weeks from Sunday and maybe Cincinnati on Dec. 21.
The quarterback situations for Dallas and Jacksonville have risen to a Duck Hodges-level emergency.
The Cowboys are on quarterback No. 4, and it will either be Garrett Gilbert or a man named Cooper Rush. Those two are a combined 55 years old and have completed 3 of 9 passes between them, for 42 yards and zero touchdowns. Too bad Colin Kaepernick’s not available, right, Jerry Jones?
The Jags are going with a person called Jake Luton (I just Googled the spelling), who will be how-is-he-not-fired-yet Doug Marrone’s 10th starter in seven years. Don’t be surprised if Marrone turns to the Steelers’ kryptonite — Glennon, his current backup — in a couple of weeks.
The 30-year-old Glennon has a career record of 6-15. A third of those wins have come against the Steelers.
I cannot fathom losing to either of those teams. But then, I couldn’t fathom losing to Brady Quinn.
What follows is not meant to be harmful but rather cautionary or even cathartic. It’s a quick trip, a haunted hayride of sorts, through the Steelers’ semi-annual disasters …
— 2019: Tomlin probably deserves a pass here, as he was attempting to win pro football games without a quarterback. Then again, no team that takes itself seriously should lose to the 4-9 Jets and Sam “I’m seeing ghosts” Darnold, or, for that matter, the Baltimore Ravens’ JV team and the ghost of Robert Griffin III. Those two terrible losses kept the Steelers out of the playoffs.
— 2018: We could start with the regrettable tie against Hue Jackson and Tyrod Taylor, but that was a five-star performance compared to what happened in Oakland, where the Steelers somehow lost to the 2-10 Raiders and their ancient X-ray machine. It cost them a playoff spot.
— 2017: Cry all you want about the Jesse James play against New England. It was losing to Mike Glennon and a Bears team that would finish 5-11 that kept the Steelers from securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (and avoiding Jacksonville).
— 2016: No complaints. The Miami loss looked bad at the time, but the Dolphins turned out to be a playoff team.
— 2015: I consider this the worst loss of the Tomlin era, given the circumstances and the opposing quarterback. Mallett had been unemployed 12 days earlier (and soon would be again). The Steelers needed to win to keep control of their playoff fate. The Ravens were 4-10. Sure enough, Mallett passed for a career-high 274 yards in a 20-17 victory that made the Steelers dependent on Sexy Rexy Ryan and the Buffalo Bills. Never forget that if Ryan hadn’t beaten the Jets the next week, we never see a legendary playoff game featuring Pacman Jones, Vontaze Burfict and “Jerry” Porter.
— 2014: The Steelers would have been the AFC’s No. 1 seed if not for a home loss to Glennon, a road loss to Brian Hoyer and the coup de grace — a 20-13 loss to Sexy Rexy’s 1-8 Jets.
— 2013: Has anybody tackled Terrelle Pryor yet? Losing to the eventual 4-12 Raiders, plus the eventual 5-10-1 Vikings (in London), kept the Steelers out of the playoffs. Pryor never won another NFL game as a quarterback.
— 2012: Well, they lost in Oakland again, but that was nothing compared to losing to Brandon Weeden and the 2-8 Browns in a flood of eight turnovers. Falling to 37-year-old Matt Hasselbeck and a wretched Titans team wasn’t great, either.
— 2011: Nothing to speak of … until Tim Tebow.
— 2010: All good — and the Steelers went to the Super Bowl.
— 2009: Here we arrive at the “unleash hell” portion of our program, which included the Steelers visiting Eric Mangini’s 1-11 Browns on a Thursday night and proceeding to attempt 32 passes in a wind storm. Quinn did nothing, but he did more than the Steelers. This preposterous 13-6 loss cost them a playoff spot.
— 2008: All good — and the Steelers won the Super Bowl.
— 2007: If you don’t think the Steelers are capable of losing to Garrett Gilbert, Cooper Rush or Jake Luton, always remember Kellen Clemens and the 1-8 Jets from Nov. 18, 2007. Remember the eight penalties worth 100 yards. Remember Najeh Davenport getting the ball eight times and Mike Nugent winning the game in overtime.
Or don’t.